Lessons from Caulfield and Moonee Valley as focus switches to Flemington
Both, especially the Valley, played with a distinct advantage to horses on pace and close to the inside. Precisely the same pattern was the case at the two meetings the year before.
Whether this is clear track bias, with the inside part of the track faster than the outside, is debatable. There are a number of factors to consider.
One is the cliche of the rails being the shortest way home, which is true enough. Another, which tends to be overlooked, is that we spend 48 weeks of the year watching a mix of handy, bad and indifferent horses making the pace and being over-run.
It’s very different with high class horses often leading at this time of the year and running fast, which tends to get the closers off the bit and expending energy to stay in touch. The ideal pace for a run-on horse is a good to even tempo, not a breakneck one. Hence, pending weather and track conditions, you can expect to see plenty of on-pace runners win during Cup week. It’s just the way it is.
But what of the winning form from the past two Saturdays when we’ve seen these high class horses winning fast run races? Well, I don’t want to spoil your breakfast or frighten the children but it can’t be trusted.
Just one of the 14 winners from the past two Cox Plate days to compete again during the spring managed to win again. That’s an abysmally poor strike rate.
That one winner was the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained two-year-old Sestuna, who won Flemington’s Ottawa Stakes after winning at the Valley.
As to the 18 Caulfield Cup day winners who backed-up again during the spring (principally during Cup week), just three won again. They were the Waterhouse-Bott pair Our Crown Mistress and Pinot along with Darren Weir’s Jennifer Lynn.
Interestingly, Our Crown Mistress and Jennifer Lynn won the 1400 metre Listed Lexus Hybrid Stakes (now the Jim Beam Black Stakes) after winning the 1400 metre fillies race on Caulfield Cup day.
Backing the last-start winners from the two major lead-up days doesn’t look to be the path to Flemington riches unless, perhaps, they’re trained by Waterhouse and Bott. This year, those horses are Thinkin’ Big, Shumookh and Espaniyaah.
So where do we look for winners during the biggest week of the racing year; one which is relentless and probably beats the ‘smarties’ as well as we mugs?
How about last-start winners from any origin? They’ve struck at one in three over the past two years, which is handy but that’s still 48 losers in the 72 races (excluding the two-year-olds).
Horses on the up, that is they’ve had no more than three runs in the preparation, have scored at one in two and closer to 66 per cent in races up to 2000 metres.
Remarkably, over the past two years, only three horses have won first-up at the Flemington carnival and none of them were in sprint races – each at 1600 metres plus.
Victorians or visitors? The visiting trainers lead 38 to 36 but I’ve credited Tony McEvoy’s winner to the visitors and the tally includes five overseas trained winners. No real guide there.
Key lead-up form races? The recent history isn’t much help here either, with the exception of the aforementioned fillies races on Cup day and perhaps the Emirates Stakes, which has had ten winners come via the Cox Plate (nine unplaced) since the 3YO Casual Pass won in 2003. If you’re good enough to run OK in the Cox Plate, you’re generally good enough to win the Emirates.
Starting prices? Last year, ten favorites won in the 37 races of the week. Thirteen winners started at $10 or greater while 24 winners were in the $4 to $10 range, which should probably be the area of focus. There was only one winner greater than 20-1. so you’re unlikely to strike with rank outsiders (although we, of course, did have Tears I Cry at 100-1 and Hidden Strings at 50-1 in successive races back in 2007).
The rain affected track on Caulfield Cup day is another complication. It would not be a surprise to see a raft of dramatic improvers from that day.
Weekend curiosities
One is Ryan Moore’s part in Winx’s historic Cox Plate success. His decision to roll forward last Saturday, aboard Rostropovich, and then apply pressure from the 1400 metres assisted the great mare in being able to slot into a one-out trail and to travel sweetly with the genuine tempo.
In her first win in 2015, Winx secured a dream rails run after Moore eased away from the fence on Highland Reel at the 1000 metres mark. This was a perfectly reasonable thing to do tactically but it just happened to open the door for Winx. Moore, of course, produced a superb ride to win the 2014 Cox Plate aboard Adelaide.
I’m also still trying to figure out exactly how he got from Melbourne, after riding in the 5pm Cox Plate, to Chantilly in France to ride on the Sunday afternoon. Presumably not in economy. He didn’t win at Chantilly.
Curiosity two: Rey De Oro won Sunday’s Tenno Sho at his second run in Japan since finishing fourth and right alongside the Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution in March’s Sheema Classic in Dubai.