On The Watch

Nature Strip’s ratings now support what his sectional times have been indicating

Suggested as a worthy contender for the $13 million Everest (1200m) after his win in a three-year-old handicap (1100m) at Flemington on June 23, slot-holders for that race certainly did not rush offers of a start for Nature Strip who held a rating clearly below his likely rivals.

At that stage Nature Strip had not even won a stakes race and held a Timeform rating of 118.

Two subsequent wins, firstly the Creswick Stakes (Listed, 1200m) at Flemington on July 7 and the Lightning Stakes (Listed, 1050m) at Morphettville on July 28 still saw no offers of an Everest start.

Saturday’s McEwen Stakes at Moonee Valley was the turning point, with slot-holder the Australian Turf Club, subsequently negotiating successfully with connections.

After defeating Houtzen (I Am Invincible) in course record time of 56.95, Nature Strip came out of the Group 2 race with a new peak Timeform rating of 121.

His 121 Timeform rating suggesting he is now within range of his key rivals in next month’s Everest – Redzel (Snitzel) with a current rating of 121 but a peak of 125 and Trapeze Artist (Snitzel) with a current rating of 117+ but a peak of 126.

And while Nature Strip had some critics as he just lasted to score by a half-head, his times were outstanding and showed why it took an exceptional sprinter and win after running such fast mid-race sections.

Ridden aggressively from his inside barrier (1), due to the short 1000 metre distance around the tight Moonee Valley track, Nature Strip showed great pace to lead.

He then produced a brilliant 200 metre breakdown (from the 800 metre point) of 10.19, 10.82 to give him a very fast 400 metre section of 21.01, then 11.42 for a fast 600 metre section of 32.43.

Nature Strip’s final 200 metres was 11.67, which gave him a final 800 metres in 44.10.

The runner-up Houtzen, the 2017 Magic Millions 3YO Classic (RL, 1200m) winner, has obviously returned in very good form in fighting on so well after such a fast race – and On The Watch suggests that the correct view is that Houtzen also went really well and not that Nature Strip disappointed in only beating her by a slender margin.

That appraisal is varied by the fact that the three-time Group 1 winner Shoals (Fastnet Rock), already a confirmed starter in The Everest, finished three and three quarter lengths back in third place, albeit at her first run this preparation.

Saturday’s Rosehill meeting saw the emergence of a possible final Everest contender with Godolphin’s imported sprinter Home Of The Brave (Starspangledbanner) recording an impressive all-the-way victory in the Theo Marks Stakes (Gr 2, 1300m).

With just one slot-holder remaining without a confirmed runner, the last berth in the Everest  is open to a number of sprinters, remaining on the fringe and Home Of The Brave’s performance on the watch would suggest that he would not be out of place in the field.

Racing on a heavy 8 track, the speedy but seemingly keen-going sprinter, not only won decisively from the Group 1 winners D’Argento (So You Think) and Trapeze Artist but his sectional times in the conditions were excellent.

Clocked from the 1200 metre point, Home Of The Brave’s 200 metre breakdown was: 11.31, 11.92 (400m in 23.23), 11.94 (600m in 11.94), 12.08 (800m in 47.25), 11.80 (1000m in 59.05) with his last 200 metres in 11.93 to give him a final 1200 metres in 1:10.98.

The runner-up D’Argento clocked 47.42 (last 800m), 35.46 (last 600m) and 23.69 for his final 400 metres in a sound performance at his second run this preparation over a distance short of his best.

While the third-placed Trapeze Artist clocked 47.34 (last 800m), 35.46 (last 600m) with his final 400 metres in 23.64 in a good first-up effort under his 61kg top weight – he obviously will be fitter for The Everest on October 13, plus the weight-for-age conditions will see him much better suited.

In The Run To The Rose (Gr 2, 1200m) a strong mid-race pace played into hands of the Queensland Sires’ Produce Stakes (Gr 2, 1350m) winner Lean Mean Machine (Zoustar), who came from the tail of the field to score in a smart first-up effort.

The early tempo, established by the leader Jonker (Spirit Of Boom) saw fast sections (from 1000 metres to the 400 metres) of 22.51 and 34.73.

The winner Lean Mean Machine clocked, on the heavy 8 track, a quick final 1000 metres in 59.35, the runner-up, the previously unbeaten Graff (Star Witness) ran 59.40 for his last 1000 metres and he also did that despite a wide trip.

All placegetters impressed On The Watch, the winner’s effort being really smart while Graff particularly took the eye; he looks a classy colt, while the third-placed Jonker did well in holding on for third at his first run back after setting a quick tempo.

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