Steve Moran

Trapeze Artist faces herculean task in Theo Marks

So who are they?

  1. Enable. We’ll start with the world’s second best mare who appears for the first time since her Prix de l’arc de Triomphe win last October. Somewhat bizarrely she resumes on the all-weather at Kempton in a modest Group 3 September Stakes worth just £39,000 to the winner. You can see it at 11.05pm.

It may be a modest prize but Enable comes off an 11 months break, partially knee injury enforced, and strikes a very decent and in-form opponent in Crystal Ocean. Plus, Enable’s one career defeat was at her return run in 2017. Odds-on, look on if ever there was one!

  1. Trapeze Artist. Let’s hope he wins for the Vieira family – and he may be the most naturally talented horse up to 1400 metres in the country. However, with 61 kilograms on his back he faces a herculean task first-up against quality opposition in the Theo Marks Stakes.

In the past 30 years, only three horses have won this race with anything like that weight (each with less) and each came off an excellent first-up run in the Warwick (now Winx) Stakes. They were Shogun Lodge and Racing To Win, with 60 kilograms, and Defier with 59.5 kilograms.

  1. Night’s Watch. Asked to progress from a handicap win last Saturday to a Group 2 in the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes. He’s never backed up in seven days before and been beaten every time he’s backed up inside 14 days.

It’s not entirely without precedent that a horse of his rating wins this Valley feature. Guillotine, rated 93, won it in 2008 progressing from a 0-91 win in Adelaide but that’s the only time it’s happened in the past 30 years.

  1. Nature Strip. You do really fancy $1.40 about a horse who’s drawn one and generally takes a good few strides to hit his high cruising speed and who has, with the possible exception of Sunlight, not yet beaten a horse of any great note. Yes, Sunlight won next start after being trounced by Nature Strip but that was in a blanket finish to a 3YO fillies race.

This is a weight-for-age race and Nature Strip’s first attempt at same. He might well be too good but there’s a touch of vulnerability.

  1. The Autumn Sun. Hailed as the second coming of Phar Lap but surely can’t be gilt edged first-up at 1500 metres against sound opposition, headed by Master Ash and Irukandji, whom he will be generally conceding a start (and possibly fitness).

 

  1. Graff. Steps up in class and distance from his win in the San Domenico Stakes where he spent no energy to have the run of the race from gate one. Now has gate 13 in the Run to the Rose.

Now, I’m not suggesting for a moment you lay all of these until your nose bleeds because you may well finish up bleeding all over. Just be wary.

However, plenty of good things do get rolled. Seven at around 2/1 or shorter in the past two weeks in Sydney and Melbourne. I am suggesting you don’t roll them all up in multis because I do think that they are vulnerable and, besides, the bookies giggle and count the money every time you take a multi in any case. The shorter they are, the more the bookmakers are happy to take your money.

The track pattern at Moonee Valley might be a further complication for punters although track manager Marty Synan says a repeat of the 25 August leader’s track was unlikely. However, his comments did seem to lack absolute conviction.

“This week I think it will even up a little bit,” Synan said, “with the rail back to the true, that generally gives every horse a chance, which it hasn’t been doing lately, but I haven’t done much different, just fertilised, gave it a mow and moved the rail, so that is all we have had to do and we will see what happens for Saturday.”

So, what might win a race?

Hartnell certainly gets his chance in the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam. Not only is he the highest rated runner coming off a sound fresh performance, the race does look likely to unfold well for him. His trainer James Cummings has a staggering 34.6 winning strike rate with his runners 4/1 or less on Melbourne tracks in the past three months.

The ‘sneaky’ might be Addison in the first at Moonee Valley. She might settle too far back but that’s why you get double figure odds. She has the blinkers back on and I fancy the small field will allow her to sweep home to win if the pace is, at least, even. She excels second-up and you can forget her 1st-up 12th in a leader dominated race where she, in fact, ran the second quickest last 400 metres.

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