Youngstar has all the credentials to be crowned Queen of Caulfield
The High Chaparral four-year-old mare was a $200,000 yearling purchase at the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale and is fittingly part-owned by several members of the Inglis family and races in the colours of Arthur Inglis’ father John.
The race is arguably complicated by the appearance of six overseas trained runners and another visitor in Speed Check who debuts for Mike Moroney. However, while the numbers may be greater in 2018 the visitors have been key players in the Cup for more than a decade now.
They now form part of the contemporary formula in finding the Caulfield Cup winner.
A locally trained Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner is more than likely to have run in the Turnbull Stakes. Five of the past six Australian trained winners have done so and that list includes the past two four-year-old winning mares – Jameka and Southern Speed.
Youngstar, of course, beat all but the unbeatable Winx in this year’s Turnbull Stakes. She rallied late in not dissimilar fashion to Jameka, in 2016, who was second to the then second best horse in the country, Hartnell.
Youngstar’s run was the clear second best, in my opinion, in the Turnbull. She was outsprinted, off the slow pace, by Cup rivals Kings Will Dream and Ventura Storm but was much, much stronger through the line. It was a stayer’s performance.
I reject the argument that Kings Will Dream was in the inferior ground given that, two races later, Jaameh went with an inch of winning the Bart Cummings when racing hard up against the fence in the straight.
As to her rivals, the recent history suggests that the alternative to the Turnbull form is the Caulfield Stakes lead-in or that the winner will be overseas trained and having its first run in Australia of the campaign. We’ve had three of those, of no fixed form-line, since 2008 – All The Good, Dunaden and Japan’s Admire Rakti.
Two winners and a further five place-getters, from this category, in the past seven years virtually demands the inclusion of at least a couple of the international runners in your trifectas and first fours.
As the racing world has narrowed so much it’s contemporary history which counts. No point going back in time nowadays. The key profile of the 21 horses to finish first three to finish in the past seven Caulfield Cups is this: seven visitors; six four-year-old mares; six via the Turnbull Stakes (including four of the mares); four from the Caulfield Stakes.
So, where do we go from here?
The Aidan O’Brien trained The Cliffsofmoher is an obvious inclusion. He follows the same path as his arguably unlucky stablemate Johannes Vermeer who was third last year, backing up from the Caulfield Stakes.
The Japanese have done well with very limited numbers in Melbourne and Chestnut Coat should not be underestimated. He’s lightly raced and progressive. He might be more a Flemington horse but I fancy he’s suited drawn wide to simply track wide – out of trouble – and run home strongly (assuming we don’t have the inside on-pace bias of last year).
Chestnut Coat is used to the hustle and bustle of big fields. The form around his fifth placing in the Tenno Sho is world class. Forget his last run in the Meguro Kinen as he settled a mile back and the race simply didn’t unfold to suit the wide closers.
I must also include Ace High. He doesn’t fit my profile rules but boasts four wins and a nose second in the ATC Derby from five runs at 1800 metres and beyond on good ground….which is irresistible. The best of the long shots are Vengeur Masque and Gallic Chieftain so the Cup numbers in order are: 18, 2, 3, 6, 16, 10.
POISONOUS ODDS
That should have got your attention. The Caulfield Cup day card is predictably intriguing and will undoubtedly have one or two pitfalls for punters. They may include the ridiculously short odds offered against Ranier and Verry Elleegant on the basis of unlucky last start runs.
Beware the ‘unlucky’ I say and beware being too enamoured with the big, swooping winners from Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day.
Just as the Caulfield track has generally favoured inside on-pace runners on Cup in the past two years, Flemington on Turnbull day has – in contrast – favoured the closers and the Flemington form doesn’t always hold up on a very different Caulfield track.
Main Stage, Bring Me Roses, Amelie’s Star, Now Or Later, Pure Pride, Inside Agent, Wine Bush, Serenely Discreet and French Emotion were all ‘big’ winners on Turnbull day in the past two years and all were beaten next start, seven of them at Caulfield.
Wild Planet did race wide to win the Listed 3YO race at the Flemington meeting this year but not in a swooping fashion. He was working forward, the whole way, three deep and facing the breeze in a genuinely run race. Yes, Ranier was unlucky behind him but Wild Planet’s a winner – Ranier’s a maiden.
Wild Planet takes the penalty from the Flemington win but, interestingly, so too did last year’s winner Snitzepeg. He’s not over the line by any stretch but at a last look $10 you have to have something on Wild Planet. The market is just wrong.
Mark Newnham’s filly Greysful Glamour is the bet against the over backed Verry Elleegant. She was simply awesome winning the Oaks trial at Flemington and follows the same path as Pinot who won the inaugural running of that race last year before claiming today’s Ethereal Stakes and the Oaks. Sizzleme, with the blinkers on, is the one way over the odds here.
Extra Brut was an outstanding winner of the UCI Stakes at Flemington and may well win again – in the Ladbrokes Classic. But I can’t help but think of last year when Main Stage stormed home to beat on-pacer Cliff’s Edge at Flemington but then the tables were turned in this race at Caulfield. Sikorsky, Chapada and Thinkin’ Big are legitimate rivals to Extra Brut.