‘He’s got a big couple of years coming up’ – Newgate throw confidence behind Russian Revolution after Libertad’s Winterbottom win
Trevor Marshallsea
ANZ News
Saturday’s victory by Libertad (Russian Revolution) in the Winterbottom Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) brought a long-awaited second elite-level success for his sire after what, compared to his explosive start to stud life, had been a couple of quiet seasons.
But Newgate Farm are confident Russian Revolution’s (Snitzel) first top-tier win since Communist’s Randwick Guineas (Gr 1, 1600m) in March, 2023 will also prove a harbinger of much greater success to come for the stallion.
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A breathtaking winner of two 1100-metre Group 1s in The Galaxy and Oakleigh Plate, Russian Revolution hit the breeding world with a bang.
The son of Snitzel (Redoute’s Choice) won the first season sires’ title in 2021-22 sitting atop in all categories: earnings, winners, wins and stakes victors, with filly Russian Conquest his top money maker. He also finished sixth on the two-year-old sires’ table.
Russian Revolution followed in 2022-23 by taking the second season sires’ title, romping home in all departments, with Communist his lead performer thanks to that Guineas success.
The stallion had 68 winners - 13 more than second-best; 109 wins, with second-best on 83; while his seven stakes winners was a whole five more than his nearest rival. He also ranked seventh among three-year-old sires.
Since then, however, the follow-up from Russian Revolution hasn’t been strong.
Whereas he finished a meritorious 27th on the general sires’ table in 2022-23 with just two crops running, he’s since come 24th and 23rd, and now sits 17th in the current term - and that comes only after Libertad’s $822,000 Winterbottom injection shot him up from 24th spot.
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Russian Revolution is still holding his own by winners, sitting ninth in Australia on that score with 67, just four below fifth place.
Yet the 12-year-old’s stakes winners have been creeping up only slowly since that dynamic beginning. While he had seven in his second season, his overall tally two-and-a-half years on is only 13, and Libertad on Saturday became his first for the current term. He’s also still been short of that demand-boosting, headline act of an offspring - though hope abounds Libertad could provide him with a lot more press in the autumn.
Still, while there’s no disguising that the market has gone soft on Russian Revolution - his fee was halved to $33,000 (inc GST) this spring and even then his numbers have been down - under the laws of undulation in the fickle stallion market, Newgate has reason to hope for an upswing.
The farm has high expectations for the sire’s current crop of two-year-olds, bred after his service fee almost doubled to $71,500 following his debutant sires’ title.
His two juvenile runners so far this season include Peter Snowden’s exciting colt Seeiaye, who emulated Russian Conquest by winning Newcastle’s two-year-old feature the Max Lees Classic (900m) on debut.
Reports are also strong about Waterhouse-Bott filly Lumbini, who ran second in her first barrier trial on November 21, splitting Gimcrack Stakes (Gr 3, 1000m) first and third placegetters Shiki (Too Darn Hot) and Masvingo (Zoustar).
Furthermore, Russian Revolution’s current crop of yearlings comes off the back of his highest service fee. After his second season sires’ title, it shot up to $88,000, and the quality mares followed accordingly - just as predictably as the standard had declined after his first season at stud.
Newgate is confident the market will duly see many quality yearlings when the sales season begins in the new year.
A total of 26 Russian Revolutions are catalogued for the Magic Millions Gold Coast sale, out of mares including Group 1 winner and debutant dam Glint Of Hope (Deep Impact), quadruple Group winner Thump (Red Ransom), and Za Zi Ba (All Too Hard), dam of Group 3-winning juvenile King Of Pop (Farnan) and a half-sister to Group 1 victor Rediener (Redoute’s Choice).
Russian Revolution lots at the Magic Millions Gold Coast sale
The catalogue also includes a full-sister to Russian Revolution’s all-time second ranking performer - sitting between Communist and Libertad - in Revolutionary Miss, a six-time Group winner who was twice Group 1-placed.
Newgate is also excited about the follow-up batch, Russian Revolution’s current foals, conceived off a $66,000 fee.
As much as they’ll be bracing for a quiet crop from this season, the Hunter Valley farm is confident the quality of Russian Revolution’s current two-year-olds, yearlings and foals - coupled with results such as Libertad’s Winterbottom - will lead to a rise in the stallion’s fortunes.
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“That was a great reward for Libertad, who’s just been so consistent from age two to five,” Newgate’s director of bloodstock Bruce Slade told ANZ News. “And it’s a great reward for Russian Revolution. Another Group 1 winner - that’s a huge feather in his cap.
“He’s one of the leading sires of winners in Australia, so it’s nice to see that converting to nice races.
“He’s got a big couple of years coming up. We feel his best two crops are his two-year-olds and his yearlings at the moment. The market can expect the best crop out of the best mares he’s covered at the yearling sales this year, and these two crops are going to be the basis of a big revival for Russian Revolution, we believe, in the next 24 months.
“I think the Winterbottom is a sign of more success to come. Plus, it’s just nice to see his stock training on, which they have been.”
Slade said Russian Revolution - who also had Brisbane and Adelaide city winners on Saturday in Gorbachev and Mintulee - had had to endure “that yo-yo effect stallions get into”.
“They cover that really strong first book, then in years two, three and four the market wants to desert these horses a little bit. That goes for all stallions,” he said.
“Like any stallion, they get their best book in year one. Russian was a low risk, high profile horse and he was really well supported, and then the numbers and the quality of mares dropped away until he had that exceptional first season of runners.
“He’s a stallion who’s clearly impacted by mare quality. Send him a nice mare, and you’ll get a really nice result.
“That’s where our confidence comes from about his revival coming up, just with the quality of mare he’s covered for his current two-year-olds and yearlings.”
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Slade said given the dip in Russian Revolution’s progress chart, coupled with the high quality mares he received at $88,000, buyers may be able to source bargains by the stallion next year.
“Right now, he’s probably the least commercial he has been. I think everyone would agree with that,” he said.
“He hasn’t had that fresh new horse to get the market excited. Recency bias does have an effect.
“But we’ve got him on the roster, we know the good stuff’s to come, and you’ll see that again with his two-year-olds this season, and his crop at the sales next year. That’s going to provide excellent value, given the quality of mares he got.
“He’s currently a top ten stallion by winners. Now, we’ve just got to get the quality mares coming back through. Based on his history, his stakes race performance will increase in the next few years as well.”
“He’s got a big couple of years coming up. We feel his best two crops are his two-year-olds and his yearlings at the moment. The market can expect the best crop out of the best mares he’s covered at the yearling sales this year, and these two crops are going to be the basis of a big revival for Russian Revolution, we believe, in the next 24 months
While the drop to a $33,000 fee this year hasn’t worked wonders, a similar move with barnmate Capitalist (Written Tycoon) has had the desired effect.
Newgate dropped the Golden Slipper (Gr 1, 1200m) winner and dual Group 1 producer’s fee this year from $66,000 to $44,000 (inc GST) to, in managing director Henry Field’s words, “make him a no-brainer stallion for breeders in terms of value”.
Slade reported Capitalist has attracted a full book this spring, capped at 150 mares.
“That move has worked a treat,” he said. “Capitalist is going particularly well. He had a big day on Saturday again with winners everywhere.
“He’s really well placed in the market at that level. He’s a really good proven option. He gets a high percentage of metro class horses, and he gets a mare off to the right start, plus he’s got the Hong Kong market there too.”
Meanwhile, Libertad’s Winterbottom victory was an emotional one for his senior owners Trilogy Racing, being the first time their familiar colours had been carried to elite success since the entity’s founding in 2021.
“We’ve won plenty of Group 1s in partnerships, so we’ve seen what it takes. But this is humbling, though also validating about the concept of what we’re doing,” said Trilogy’s founder and senior owner Jason Stenning. “So it’s really exciting in a lot of ways.”
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Stenning said the Group 1 breakthrough for the Annabel and Rob Archibald-trained five-year-old entire may have surprised some - given he was the third-longest priced runner of nine - but not his connections.
“This horse had a timeform rating of 110 at two years old. In our eyes he was always at that Group 1 level, but he’s always flown under the radar,” Stenning said.
“He was never in the media, he was never spruiked. He was usually at big odds, like when he won the Victory Stakes [at Eagle Farm in May] at $71, and again today in the Winterbottom at $21.
“And he was out for more than 40 weeks, from the back end of his three-year-old season. So he missed out on those Group 1 races that we believed he was going to be competitive in. But he’s come back, and he hasn’t had a soundness issue since.
“When he won the Victory stakes in May, that told us he was back and he was going to be competitive.
“Today, the ownership Group, Annabel and Rob and the team - everybody - we believed he could win it. No one else did, but when it’s your horse, you have that inside information, whereas from the outside, they’re not seeing that full picture.
“So yeah, we’re not shocked, but we are delighted.”
Stenning owns Trilogy with his wife Melanie and Sean and Kathy Dingwall. The four friends also own Victoria’s Blue Gum Farm stud, and Saturday’s crowning Group 1 success for Libertad came at an opportune time, given Blue Gum suffered the premature death of one of its three stallions - Inglis Classic graduate Sejardan (Sebring) - in early November.
“As everyone’s aware we had a huge loss in losing Sejardan only a few weeks ago, so we’re still coping and dealing with that,” Stenning said.
“One of the best rules is ‘No decisions on raceday’. But I think this win certainly qualifies Libertad to go to stud, but we’ll just let the dust settle, get together with Sean And Kathy, brainstorm it and see what we’re going to do next.”
Since the 2025 breeding season is all but finished, racing fans should be able to look forward to seeing Libertad resume from a spell in the autumn, where he’ll attempt to add to his five career wins and $1.7 million in prize-money. Races such as Randwick’s TJ Smith Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) - run at weight-for-age like the Winterbottom, would likely be among his targets.
Bred by the NSW Southern Highlands’ Rheinwood Pastoral along with Somerset Services, Libertad was first sold for $40,000 from Rheinwood’s draft at the 2022 Inglis Classic Yearling sale, purchased by renowned Victorian trader Tal Nolen.
The colt was then sold by Nolen later that year at the Inglis Ready To Race two-year-old sale, bought by trainer Annabel Neasham for $210,000.
