The Derby formula
Is there a science behind selecting a Derby prospect as a yearling? By The Numbers looks at what we can learn from the recent history of the Australian Derby ahead of Saturday’s renewal at Randwick.
The bidding war for future Australian Derby (Gr 1, 2400m) winner Don Eduardo (Zabeel) lit up the sales ring at Karaka in early 2000.
The battle between international investors Eduardo Cojuangco and Nasser Lootah was settled in the former’s favour when he landed the three-quarter brother to 1996 Australian Derby winner Octagonal (Zabeel) for a record price of NZ$3.6 million.
A little over two years later, Don Eduardo, under the expert eye of Lee Freedman, delivered a result befitting his pedigree and his price tag, winning the 2003 Derby in a stirring duel with the Gai Waterhouse-trained Carnegie Express (Carnegie). He remains, to this day, the most expensive yearling ever to win a Group 1 race in Australia.
In the 20 editions contested since, the average yearling price of an Australian Derby winner has been a rather more modest $127,307. In fact, you could have bought all those Derby winners twice over and still had change in your pocket for what Cojuangco paid for his Derby champ.
In what is a sign of the times in an Australian industry enamoured with speed and precocity, Classic prospects can generally be bought at a discount in both Australia and New Zealand.
The last three Australian Derby winners, Hitotsu (Maurice), Explosive Jack (Jakkalberry) and Quick Thinker (So You Think), were all purchased as yearlings for $100,000, less than the average price across all sales in their respective years.
The stats say that 13 of the past 20 Australian Derby winners were sold as yearlings. Of those, 11 were purchased in a price window between $65,000 and $140,000. Given the prize-money for the race has been between $1.5 million and $2 million across the century, there have been some very good returns on investments.
The Derby winner who cost the most as a yearling since Don Eduardo was 2007 winner Fiumicino (Zabeel), at NZ$425,000, while the best buying was for 2010 victor Shoot Out (High Chaparral), who cost just $15,000.
Most people when asked for a formula for buying Derby winners would start out with a New Zealand-bred horse and indeed, Kiwi-breds have won 35 of the past 61 editions of the race. They haven’t been as dominant in the 21st century, with 11 winners from 23 editions since 2000, but the statistics do point to an over-representation of Australian Derby success of those with the (NZ) suffix.
New Zealand-bred horses have made up 36.6 per cent of Australian Derby runners since 2000 but are over-represented with 47.8 per cent of winners and 43.5 per cent of placegetters.
| Year | Winner | Country bred | Yearling price |
| 2022 | Hitotsu | Australia | $100,000 |
| 2021 | Explosive Jack | New Zealand | NZ$100,000 |
| 2020 | Quick Thinker* | Australia | $100,000 |
| 2019 | Angel Of Truth | Australia | – |
| 2018 | Levendi | Australia | $140,000 |
| 2017 | Jon Snow | New Zealand | NZ$65,000 |
| 2016 | Tavago | New Zealand | NZ$60,000 |
| 2015 | Mongolian Khan** | Australia | NZ$140,000 |
| 2014 | Criterion | New Zealand | – |
| 2013 | Dundeel | New Zealand | – |
| 2012 | Ethiopia | Australia | – |
| 2011 | Shamrocker | New Zealand | NZ$65,000 |
| 2010 | Shoot Out | Australia | $15,000 |
| 2009 | Roman Emperor | New Zealand | NZ$240,000 |
| 2008 | Nom Du Jeu | New Zealand | – |
| 2007 | Fiumicino | New Zealand | NZ$425,000 |
| 2006 | Headturner | Australia | NZ$125,000 |
| 2005 | Eremein | Australia | – |
| 2004 | Starcraft | New Zealand | NZ$80,000 |
| 2003 | Clangalang | Australia | – |
| 2002 | Don Eduardo | New Zealand | NZ$3,600,000 |
| 2001 | Universal Prince | Australia | $80,000 |
| 2000 | Fairway | Australia | NZ$40,000 |
| G1 Australian Derby winners since 2000 | |||
| * also sold as weanling | |||
| **also sold as a 2yo | |||
Certainly, sourcing horses out of New Zealand sales has proven a useful tactic. Since 2000, 11 of the 16 subsequent Australian Derby winners purchased as yearlings have been bought out of New Zealand Bloodstock’s yearling sales at Karaka. That trend has moderated in the past five years, with just one Karaka graduate successful.
Bloodstock agent Paul Moroney has sourced five winners of Derbies across Australia and New Zealand, including 2006 Australian Derby winner Headturner (Anabaa), and all of them have come out of the country of his birth, New Zealand.
For Moroney, the formula for identifying a Classic prospect as a yearling involves a combination of factors.
“Of my five Derby winners, all have been different types. But they have mostly been bred to do it, possibly with the exception of Headturner, but when I bought him, I always saw him as a staying type. He used himself and walked like a stayer,” the agent told ANZ Bloodstock News.
“It‘s always a combination of their pedigree and how they use themselves. Stayers walk in a particular way that sprinters don’t. They get right under themselves, they get a long way forward off their hocks, and they are a more scopey, longer type of horse.”
What is also key, according to Moroney, is the education and development these prospects are given once they have moved on from the sales ring.
“The other common denominator is that they all had trainers who were capable of getting them there. I remember having dinner with John Hawkes after Headturner won the Derby. I said to him what a great training effort it was. He picked every right race, every right distance to have that horse peaking on Derby day and that’s what it comes down to,” he said.
So what does all that tell us about the 2023 edition of the Australian Derby?
Well firstly, for the first time since 2010, the majority of the field – ten of 18 or 55.6 per cent – were bred in New Zealand. Interestingly, however, just three of the field were sold as yearlings at Karaka.
The reason for that is very specific to the times. The 2021 sales season was significantly impacted by Covid lockdowns, particularly in New Zealand, and that meant that many yearlings in New Zealand were either sent to Australia to sell, were held back for the breeze-up sales or retained and later sold privately.
One of those New Zealand-bred Derby contenders to sell through Karaka as a yearling was Japanese Emperor (Satono Aladdin), who was sourced by Moroney and his partner Catheryne Bruggeman in very unusual circumstances.
“We did all our inspections for that sale remotely from Sydney. We thought he was the best colt from all the work we did online,” he said.
“We had two extra videos of him shot, the last one being five minutes in high definition from all angles. He was the one we settled on.”
Inspecting remotely from overseas is far from ideal, but the performances of Japanese Emperor to date for his trainer brother Mike, including a placing in the Australian Guineas (Gr 1, 1600m), tells Moroney he got something right.
Albeit, he has still only seen the horse once in the flesh.
“That was at Mike’s stables very briefly. He was a good-sized yearling, but he hasn’t really grown. You’d describe him now as medium-sized,” Moroney said.
“He’s a very athletic horse and a lot of the Japanese sireline is coming through. Satono Aladdin is putting his hand up and has the potential to be a very good sire.”
Moroney and Bruggeman paid a premium price for Japanese Emperor, who at NZ$360,000 remains the highest-priced southern hemisphere progeny of his sire.
The premium price seems to be a bit of a trend among the 13 horses in Saturday’s Australian Derby field of 18 which were sold as yearlings.
The average yearling price of those horses was $252,917, with six of them having cost in excess of $300,000. The highest price paid was for Williamsburg (Snitzel), who was a $470,000 buy for Tony Fung Investments at the 2021 Inglis Easter Yearling Sale.
*Parity assumed between AU/NZ dollars for statistical purposes
| Horse | Country bred | Yearling price |
| Sharp ’N’ Smart** | New Zealand | NZ$55,000 |
| Manzoice | Australia | $340,000 |
| Elliptical** | Australia | $380,000 |
| Pericles | Australia | – |
| Williamsburg | Australia | $470,000 |
| Andalus | New Zealand | NZ$420,000 |
| Full Of Sincerity | New Zealand | – |
| Japanese Emperor | New Zealand | NZ$360,000 |
| Mark Twain | New Zealand | – |
| Suizuro | Australia | $60,000 |
| Tapildoodledo | New Zealand | – |
| Virtuous Circle | New Zealand | $360,000 |
| Major Beel | New Zealand | $260,000 |
| High Approach | Australia | $50,000 |
| Stroke Of Luck | Australia | $200,000 |
| Cheval Savant | Australia | $80,000 |
| Domingo** | New Zealand | – |
| Twigman | New Zealand | – |
| 2023 Australian Derby field | ||
| * also sold as weanling | ||
| ** also sold as a 2yo |