Australia’s leading two-year-old trainer is…

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There may still be three and a half months left in the racing season, but two of Australian racing’s biggest names already dominate when it comes to the number of two-year-old wins.  

Anyone who has watched the blue parade in Australian two-year-old racing this season will not be shocked that James Cummings, with 23, tops the list of trainers ranked by juvenile wins so far in 2022/23.

But what is more surprising, is that apart from Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, who have 20 two-year-old race wins this campaign, the Godolphin Australia head trainer has limited competition when it comes to being crowned Australia’s most prolific trainer of juveniles for the second time in three seasons.

The pair are well clear of the next ranked Australian trainer, Queenslander Les Ross and his army of ‘Mishani’ two-year-olds, who have won 13 races between them.

Cummings’ juvenile success this season may not have included a Group 1 win – he will chase that with Amur (Snitzel) and Tom Kitten (Harry Angel) in the Champagne Stakes (Gr 1, 1600m) on Saturday – but has included nine stakes successes.

Those nine black type wins have come from seven separate horses with dual stakes winners Cylinder (Exceed And Excel) and Zulfiqar (Exceed And Excel), joined by the above pair plus Corniche (Fastnet Rock), Barber (Exceed And Excel) and Exploring (Brazen Beau).  

Waterhouse and Bott are also second to Cummings when it comes to two-year-old stakes wins this season, with five, level with Annabel Neasham.

Chris Waller, who has had eight two-year-old wins, is the top juvenile trainer by prize-money – and Group 1 wins – so far in 2022/23, thanks to victories for Shinzo (Snitzel) in the Golden Slipper (Gr 1, 1200m) and Militarize (Dundeel) in the Inglis Sires’ (Gr 1, 1400m).

Cummings has enjoyed more opportunities than any of his rivals with 121 two-year-old starters. That is a number that only Ross, with 115, comes close to matching.

But it is not just simply a numbers game, as Cummings’ winning two-year-old strike-rate of 19 per cent is his highest for any season since taking over at Godolphin in 2017, and a substantial improvement on 11.8 per cent through 2021/22.

Also on a significant upswing in terms of two-year-old fortunes are Lindsay Park trainers Ben and JD Hayes. 

With 11 juvenile wins this season, they have already surpassed their total of eight from last campaign, while their strike-rate is at a lofty 26.2 per cent, twice as potent as they were in 2021/22. 

That list of 11 wins is highlighted by the Blue Diamond Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) success of Little Brose (Per Incanto), a tenth win for Lindsay Park in the race, but the first for this particular Hayes family partnership.

Waterhouse and Bott’s consistency in producing two-year-old winners is quite remarkable. Their strike-rate this season sits at 24.1 per cent, (20 wins from 83 starters), the highest in their time in partnership and it is the fifth time in the past six seasons they have had 20 or more juvenile wins.

Leading trainers in Australia by two-year-old wins – 2022/23
Trainer	Wins	Starts	Stakes wins	Prize-money
James Cummings	23	121	9	$3,904,600
Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott	20	83	5	$2,421,075
Les Ross	13	115	0	$1,142,220
Ben and JD Hayes	11	42	4	$2,737,780
Annabel Neasham	8	46	5	$2,516,425
Chris Waller	8	45	4	$4,297,625

As of April 10, 2023

Any discussion of strike-rate should also include Western Australia’s Simon Miller, who has had just 19 two-year-old starters this season for six wins, giving him an impressive success rate of 31.6 per cent.

Neasham’s two-year-old stats this season are noteworthy as of her eight wins, five have come in stakes races, including victories in the past two weeks at Randwick with Kristilli (Hellbent) in the Percy Sykes Stakes (Gr 2, 1200m), and Libertad (Russian Revolution) in the Kindergarten Stakes (Gr 3, 1100m).

There is also a story in a couple of the trainers we haven’t mentioned. There is still plenty of time for juvenile success to flow but Peter and Paul Snowden, last year’s leading two-year-old trainers and a powerhouse in this area over the past decade, have not lived up to their usual lofty standards.

The Snowdens had 24 two-year-old wins in each of the past two completed seasons and, prior to that, had 41 in 2020/21 and 50 in 2019/20, but this season the training partnership have just seven wins from 63 starters, although four of those wins have been at stakes level.

It’s a similar story for Anthony and Sam Freedman, who were equal second behind the Snowdens last season on 22 two-year-old wins. However, this season has produced two juvenile wins from just 16 starters for the Victorian-based pair.

Maher and Eustace have also moved their focus away from two-year-olds. In the 2019/20 season, they had 36 two-year-old wins, but that has dropped to 24 in 2020/21 and then 18 last year. To this point of the current season, they have seven wins from 48 starters.

A quick look across to New Zealand shows, like Australia, there is little surprise with the trainers at the top when it comes to two-year-old wins.

It’s only April but Mark Walker has already broken the record of his Te Akau predecessor, Jamie Richards, for total wins this season. Of the Matamata-based trainer’s 162 wins, 19 have been from his two-year-olds. The closest to him in terms of juvenile wins is Stephen Marsh on seven.

Getting back to Cummings, and what is apparent from looking at his stats since joining Godolphin is how his two-year-old success has ebbed and flowed.

In his first season in 2017/18, he had 24 two-year-old wins and that surged to 38 in his second season, before dropping back to 18 in his third. That figure then rebounded to 36 in 2020/21 before slipping back to 21 last season.

The pattern is even more marked when you look at juvenile stakes wins for the trainer. From one juvenile stakes win in his first season, Cummings’ figure leapt to 13 in his second, dropped back to one again in season three, then up to 16 in season four. Last season again featured just one Cummings-trained two-year-old stakes winner, while for the current campaign, as mentioned, it is back up to nine.

The stats show us Cummings did have fewer two-year-old starters in the leaner years but not to such an extent it would make a material difference to such a fluctuation in fortunes.

However, as things stand the tide is high for Cummings and Godolphin this season and that will be all they will be concerned with. A Group 1 win from either of their two-year-old pair on Saturday would only add to what has been, to this point, a spectacularly successful campaign for Godolphin’s latest racing crop.  

James Cummings two-year-old stats by season

Season	Wins	Stakes wins	Winning %	Prize-money
2022/23*	23	9	19.00%	$3,904,600
2021/22	21	1	11.80%	$1,728,630
2020/21	36	16	15.50%	$4,794,080
2019/20	18	1	9.90%	$1,472,857
2018/19	38	13	17.80%	$7,845,920
2017/18	24	1	15.30%	$1,559,540

* Season incomplete