By The Numbers looks at the question of at what point of their careers do stallions produce their best racehorses?
The success of a stallion can be measured in various ways, but the one metric that stands the test of time is the racetrack record of their progeny.
Trend, marketability and commercial success can prove important in terms of starting off strong and maintaining momentum, but once a sire’s progeny hit the track, often coinciding with the father’s fourth season at stud, the measure that matters most is winning.
So when in a stallion’s career is the best time to source their best horses? Unproven sires offer more risk, but if a breeder is able to identify one which can develop into a star, then they may find themselves with significant upside.
Is it better to wait until they are proven, and pay an extra premium as a service fee, but know the quality of horse you are likely to get?
These are the questions that breeders are wrestling with right now as they prepare their broodmare plans for the upcoming breeding season.
There is no right or wrong answer, just various confidence levels and appetites for risk.
One way of looking at this from a data perspective is to examine the best sires as a collective set and see at what point of their careers their best progeny emerged from.
By The Numbers has brought together the Southern Hemisphere progeny records of 10 of the most influential stallions in Australasia of the past 40 years to look at stallion success, measured by crops.
You can debate which stallions should be included in a survey such as this, but this particular list has taken into account volume of stakes winners, plus representation from various eras, with a proviso that they have at least 13 crops on the ground.
That number 13 was chosen as it was the amount of Southern Hemisphere crops that the most influential stallion in recent Australasian breeding history, Danehill (Danzig), produced before his death at age 17 in 2003.
As well as Danehill, the list includes the three most influential New Zealand-based stallions in the past 40 years, Sir Tristram (Sir Ivor), his son Zabeel (Sir Tristram) and grandson Savabeel (Zabeel). It also contains three of Danehill’s champion sire sons, Redoute’s Choice, Fastnet Rock and Exceed And Excel, and grandson Snitzel (Redoute’s Choice). The other two are dual Australian champion Encosta De Lago (Fairy King) and the American-bred shuttle sensation More Than Ready (Southern Halo).
Combining the Southern Hemisphere progeny of these 10 sires takes in a huge data set of 16,232 foals, of which 13,271 made it to the track and 9858 were winners. Among those horses are 1367 stakes winners, 308 of them who won at Group 1 level.
The overall winners-to-runners percentage of this data set is 74.28 per cent, while stakes-winners-to runners-is 10.3 per cent. The stats also show that 2.32 per cent of these horses were Group 1 winners.
Combined crop-by crop progeny record of 10 leading Australasian stallions
| Crop | Rnrs | Wnrs | SW | G1w |
| 1st crop | 699 | 554 | 76 | 17 |
| 2nd crop | 728 | 573 | 87 | 24 |
| 3rd crop | 742 | 558 | 97 | 30 |
| 4th crop | 801 | 620 | 80 | 19 |
| 5th crop | 992 | 748 | 113 | 34 |
| 6th crop | 856 | 625 | 94 | 26 |
| 7th crop | 1019 | 776 | 122 | 19 |
| 8th crop | 1043 | 809 | 120 | 26 |
| 9th crop | 1019 | 800 | 114 | 24 |
| 10th crop | 951 | 715 | 90 | 15 |
| 11th crop | 912 | 700 | 87 | 18 |
| 12th crop | 876 | 637 | 86 | 21 |
| 13th crop | 685 | 502 | 67 | 9 |
| 14th crop | 576 | 364 | 42 | 7 |
| 15th crop | 436 | 299 | 22 | 5 |
| 16th crop | 323 | 206 | 23 | 5 |
| 17th crop | 225 | 150 | 18 | 3 |
| 18th crop | 148 | 83 | 12 | 3 |
| 19th crop | 108 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
| 20th crop | 77 | 52 | 4 | 1 |
| 21st crop | 52 | 34 | 5 | 2 |
| 22nd crop | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
*Statistics as of June 30, 2023
So when in their careers did these key metrics peak?
Starting out with winners-to-runners, we see that the combined first crops of these stallions have been the most successful, at 79.26 per cent. Second crops are only slightly less successful as winners at 78.71 per cent.
The rate of winners drops off into the mid-70s for the next few crops, until it peaks again from the seventh crop onwards. The overall stat climbs from 76.15 to 77.56 and then 78.51 per cent in the ninth crop. It then drops away again from that point.
That first season success rate is particularly strong for Danehill, whose first Southern Hemisphere crop produced an amazing 93.2 per cent of winners-to-runners, while his sons Exceed And Excel (85.39 per cent) and Fastnet Rock (81.97 per cent), as well as his grandson Snitzel (81.97 per cent) also over-performed compared to the other sires in this metric.
That ninth crop peak is interesting, coinciding with when a sire has become proven and the quality of mares is likely to be upgrading at the fastest rate. Both Snitzel (85.11 per cent) and Savabeel (80.21 per cent) had their best winning records from this crop, while Zabeel (77.27) and Sir Tristram (81.82) also had peaks compared to the surrounding crops.
Combined crops ranked by winners-to-runners
| Crop | Winners to runners |
| 1st crop | 79.26% |
| 2nd crop | 78.71% |
| 9th crop | 78.51% |
| 8th crop | 77.56% |
| 4th crop | 77.40% |
| 11th crop | 76.75% |
| 7th crop | 76.15% |
| 5th crop | 75.40% |
| 3rd crop | 75.20% |
| 10th crop | 75.18% |
But what about their best horses, when did they emerge?
In terms of volume and rate of stakes winners (stakes-winners-to-runners), the third crop is clearly the most successful. There were 161 stakes winners from the third Southern Hemisphere crops of these 10 stallions at an impressive success rate of 13.07 per cent.
The next most successful crop in terms of SW/R is the seventh crop (11.97 per cent), slightly ahead of the second crop, then follows the eighth crop, the fifth crop and the ninth crop, who are all in the 11 per cent range.
Danehill’s third Australian crop, which included five Group 1 winners, had an unbelievable record, featuring 14 stakes winners from 51 runners, a rate of 27.45 per cent. Zabeel’s third crop also featured 14 stakes winners (from 70 runners), which was a career-high rate of 20 per cent, while there were 11 stakes winners in Sir Tristram’s third crop, giving that vintage a SW/R rate of 23.91 per cent.
All three of those stallions had crops with more stakes winners. Danehill had 22 in his seventh crop, Zabeel had 16 in both his eighth and ninth crop, while Sir Tristram’s most successful was 18 in his seventh crop. But these all occurred when their books had grown substantially off the back of that early progeny success.
Redoute’s Choice’s career, in terms of this metric, followed a slightly different pattern. His most successful crop in terms of stakes winners was his ninth crop, with 14, giving him a SW/R rate of 22.11 per cent. The only other crop of his to reach that 20 per cent mark was his 13th.
Combined crops ranked by stakes winners-to-runners
| Crop | SW/R |
| 3rd crop | 13.07% |
| 7th crop | 11.97% |
| 2nd crop | 11.95% |
| 8th crop | 11.51% |
| 5th crop | 11.39% |
| 9th crop | 11.19% |
| 6th crop | 10.98% |
| 1st crop | 10.87% |
| 4th crop | 9.99% |
| 12th crop | 9.82% |
Group 1 winners are the ones that make the headlines for stallions and it is interesting to note that the elite performers tend to occur more frequently earlier in their sire’s careers.
The third crops of these stallions again lead the way when it comes to the rate of elite winners, with 4.04 per cent of third crop runners among those 10 stallions becoming Group 1 winners, or 30 of 742 horses.
The 21st crop is the second most successful on this metric on 3.85 per cent, which can be explained by Zabeel having two winners from his penultimate year at stud, something that speaks to his durability, but which is a bit of a statistical anomaly in the broader context. Four of the top five crops in G1w/R were from the sires’ first six years at stud.
The most successful crop in terms of total Group 1 winners was the fifth crop, which had 34, giving that cohort a success rate of 3.43 per cent.
The overall Group 1 success rate drops off after the fifth crop. In that first five crops, the G1/W rate is 3.13 per cent, but in the collection of horses from crops 6-10 that slips to 2.25 per cent, and then to 1.72 per cent from crops 11-15.
The most Group 1 winners to emerge out of any one crop of a stallion was the seven from Sir Tristram’s fifth crop, highlighted by five-time Group 1 winner Tristarc. Danehill’s fifth crop produced six Group 1 winners, while Encosta De Lago’s fifth produced five.
Other stallions to have six elite winners from the same crop include Redoute’s Choice (third crop), Zabeel (eighth crop), Sir Tristram (second crop) and Fastnet Rock (third crop).
Combined crops ranked by G1-winners-to-runners
| Crop | G1/W |
| 3rd crop | 4.04% |
| 21st crop | 3.85% |
| 5th crop | 3.43% |
| 2nd crop | 3.30% |
| 6th crop | 3.04% |
| 8th crop | 2.49% |
| 1st crop | 2.43% |
| 12th crop | 2.40% |
| 4th crop | 2.37% |
| 9th crop | 2.36% |