International flavour of Cup likely to continue
However, it may be premature to declare that it signals a return to continuing local celebrations in the years to come on the first Tuesday in November.
Less than one length separated the first five to finish – from the winner Vow And Declare – the Australian bred son of Declaration Of War (War Front) – trained by Danny O’Brien to the Paul Preusker trained Surprise Baby, the New Zealand bred by Shocking (Street Cry) whose career has been moulded in Australia.
The winner’s performance and that of Surprise Baby, arguably the very best effort in a very slowly run race, may be seen as portents of a local resurrection.
While I’m sure that Vow And Declare and Surprise Bay, veterans of just 13 and 11 starts respectively, will remain forces in Australian racing and that there are positive pointers from the three-year-old stock of local stallions; the argument against any wholesale local rejuvenation in the Cup comes from the fact that northern hemisphere bred runners filled the other top seven placings in a race which had just 2.1 lengths seperate the first nine.
The northern hemisphere bred three-year-old Il Paradisio (Galileo) was arguably unlucky not to have won and thereby produce a third straight win for overseas bred and trained horses of that age.
Lloyd Williams almost struck again with an import, Master Of Reality (Frankel) which has become a recurring theme. Prince Of Arran (Shirocco) ran extremely well as he continues to imitate/emulate the grand Red Cadeaux.
Japan’s Mer De Glace (Rulership) also followed up his Caulfield Cup win with another first class performance. While Il Paradiso was thwarted by a lack room late he was, like Surprise Baby and Mer De Glace, also disadvantaged by a slow pace with the first 1600 metres covered in a pedestrian 1.44.5.
Il Paradiso and Surprise Baby, for the record, were the only two horses to break 34 seconds for the last 600 metres and, if you trust the official data, the latter covered 3355 metres, 90 metres more than the winner.
The Europeans will continue to make a strong challenge for the Cup as indeed will the Japanese, you’d think, after this spring’s performances of Mer De Glace and Lys Gracieux (Heart’s Cry).
And could we face the prospect, in years to come, of Japanese bred sons or daughters of Declaration Of War, who also sired the Derby winner Warning, raiding the Cup?
Declaration of War (War Front–Tempo West, by Rahy) is now standing at Japan Bloodhorse Breeders’ Association’s Shizunai Stallion Station on the island of Hokkaido.
At the risk of being a “smarty pants” it was the central muse of this column last that there’s a massive “what if” should Warning and Vow And Declare win at Flemington.
“Declaration Of War never really captured Australian breeders at the time,” Coolmore’s Tom Moore told ANZ Bloodstock News last week in reference to the horse standing just two seasons in Australia. I now wonder if there’ll be any moves afoot to get him back.
Needless to say I was on Surprise Baby yesterday and I remain convinced he is freakishly good but that didn’t help my bank balance even though I mused I wasn’t “giving up on the notion of a seemingly unlikely “local” victory, most likely via Surprise Baby or Vow And Declare in an incredibly even Cup.”
In the end, luck will play its part in such a keenly contested race and full credit to Craig Williams for his superbly enterprising ride and to trainer O’Brien for adopting an unconventional program more akin to those employed by the Europeans.
It was the closest finish since 1999 when Rogan Josh won and just 1.3 lengths separated the first six.
Frankie Dettori rode the runner-up Central Park that year. He finished in the same spot yesterday aboard Master Of Reality but was relegated to fourth after a stewards protest. I suspect there’s every chance Il Paradiso would have won had Dettori held his line.
Dettori was duly suspended for careless riding. He was famously suspended for a month and fined $20,000 for careless riding, aboard Max Dynamite in the 2015 Melbourne Cup, which saw several other runners have their chances diminished.
Corey Brown, the dual Melbourne Cup winning jockey, incidentally rode the third placegetter in that 1999 Cup. This year, he’s been commenting on television and his contributions have been the broadcasting highlight of the spring. His and occasional cameos from Johnny Murtagh.
The on-track highlights yesterday, aside from the Cup, came from the winners Aryaaf (Epaulette) and Shared Ambition (Born To Sea); the beaten Xilong (Deep Field) who just might be a star and, of course, the riding of Nash Rawiller.