Stay Inside has the numbers

The opposite forces of statistics and dreams will rarely align in the breeding world, but Newgate Farm could be excused for hoping they’re coming together in the shape of surging first-season sire Stay Inside (Extreme Choice).

Newgate of course has Australia’s highest-priced stallion, the sub-fertile freak of nature that is Stay Inside’s father Extreme Choice (Not A Single Doubt). The 12-year-old can stand at his record-equalling $385,000 service fee this spring thanks to a stakes winners to runners ratio of 11.7 per cent.

But Stay Inside, the leading light in a band of promising Extreme Choice sons at stud, can currently boast to outstripping his sire on that score. The tough win of his son The Machine Gun in Saturday’s Tattersall’s Stakes (Listed, 1400m) at Eagle Farm brought Stay Inside a fourth stakes victor from just 24 runners – at 12.5 per cent.

Naturally, he has a long way to go for comparisons to Extreme Choice in terms of longevity and numbers, although Stay Inside may rival him for numbers sooner than you think with his sire’s progeny restricted by his fertility issues, to 162 from six crops racing.

But as far as starts to stud careers go, Newgate could not have wished for a better start to Stay Inside’s career when he retired to stud in 2023. Trained by the then partnership of Michael and Richard Freedman, Stay Inside had won his first two starts by lengthy margins and come fourth in the Todman Stakes (Gr 2, 1200m), before his blistering, historically high-rating 1.8 length triumph in the Golden Slipper (Gr 1, 1200m).

Despite some feet issues, he came back for two more spring runs – both somewhat underwhelming fifths. It was decided to retire him after that, with Newgate confident he’d already shown enough to engender confidence of stud success.

“Obviously, Stay Inside is a very, very rare article,” Newgate managing director Henry Field told ANZ News at the time. “He’s a dominant Golden Slipper winner and he is by a sire phenomenon in Extreme Choice.

“In my opinion, we’ve never retired a horse to stud with better credentials than Stay Inside and we will be all chips in behind him to make sure he can be a sire at the farm for many years to come.”

One campaign of runners in, that assertion that now looks particularly well founded.

With one of his four stakes winners being his only New Zealand starter in Lassified, Stay Inside has three in Australia – the most of any first-season sire in the country – from 23 runners.

He’s third by earnings on the first season table, behind runaway winner Home Affairs (I Am Invincible), who has two stakes winners, and some $33,000 below second-placed Pinatubo (Shamardal), who has one.

And Stay Inside has the fewest runners in the top five, behind Home Affairs with 39, Pinatubo with 26, and his Newgate barnmates Wild Ruler (Snitzel) and Tiger Of Malay (Extreme Choice), who have 30 and 26.

On the Australian two-year-old sires’ table, Stay Inside is equal second by stakes winners, level with such older and better numerically represented luminaries as Extreme Choice, Too Darn Hot (Dubawi) and Trapeze Artist (Snitzel), and behind only the five blacktype winners of the great Snitzel (Redoute’s Choice).

By winners (seven) he sits equal-seventh, with considerably fewer starters than five of the six above him, who have 30-plus. The exception is the perhaps underrated Brazen Beau (I Am Invincible), who has eight from 12.

Stay Inside’s tally for 2025-26 of three Australian stakes winners holds him in strong stead in recent history. It’s eclipsed among first season stallions only by the four of Capitalist (Written Tycoon) in 2021 and last term’s champion freshman Ole Kirk (Written Tycoon) – though again, Lassified in New Zealand puts Stay Inside level with that pair for total stakes winners.

Only Spirit Of Boom (Sequalo) with five in 2017-18, has had more in their first season over at least the past 12 years.

So impressive were Stay Inside’s first progeny – he had a $1 million yearling in his first sale who turned out to be 2025 Breeders’ Plate (Gr 3, 1000m) hero Incognito – Newgate took the unusual step of boosting his service fee last year before he’d had a runner, from $55,000 to $66,000.

The market responded with his largest book of mares since his first season at $77,000, and his 181 covers almost matched that debut list of 189.

With Newgate resisting the urge to raise his fee again and with another full book locked in for the coming spring,  the progressive Hunter Valley farm are oozing confidence that the future looks golden for Stay Inside, the second-highest priced stallion among their 16.

“He’s going super – doing a really great job,” Newgate director of bloodstock Bruce Slade told ANZ News.

“He’s the leading Australian first-season sire now by stakes winners, which is a nice score to be on top of, and with a lot less runners than a few of the others.

“So on that score, we’re very happy. We’re really delighted to see the horse going so well.”

Slade held back from making comparisons with Extreme Choice – possibly because Newgate essentially consider him the best sire in the world at present – but said it was at least heartening to see Stay Inside fulfil hopes and expectations so far.

“I guess comparisons between him and Extreme Choice are going to come thick and fast, being a star son of his,” he said.

“Never say never, but he’s got a long way to go to match Extreme Choice. But he has started exceptionally well.

“It’s just great to see things happening as we hoped and thought. When you get the Golden Slipper winner and high rating one at that – he got a huge rating for his Slipper win from (ratings expert) Daniel O’Sullivan – and he’s by the best stallion in world, you’re giving yourself a good chance of getting a really good stallion on the roster, and we’re just delighted with the way he’s going.”

Slade said Stay Inside had extremely strong prospects for a powerful follow-up season, given he’d attracted a range of larger, scopey mares due to having a compact build like his father.

And while comparisons to Extreme Choice remain ambitious at this stage, Newgate have plenty of reason to hope his progeny will have a good amount of versatility like his sire, who’s elite victors range from Slipper and Blue Diamond Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) winning two-year-olds to Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m) hero Knight’s Choice.

“The promising thing is he’s done it from 23 runners, and I know quite a few of them are out of middle distance mares, mares with scope,” Slade said.

“Because he a typically neat and sharp Extreme Choice horse, breeders have used him to breed speed into classy middle distance mares, and I think you’ll see that sort of progeny come through as three-year-olds.

“You’ll find there’s a lot of nice horses coming through from mares who matured a bit later on, and he’ll have a strong second wave of runners coming.

“He’s going to be a horse who’ll get you two-year-olds out of certain mares, but also Guineas horses, and Oaks and Derby horses possibly, down the track out of the right mares.”

He added: “I think there’ll be versatility among his stock because they’re just very athletic horses, not heavy set horses.

“Anything to do with distance range comes down to efficiency and carrying a lot of muscle. They’re lean horses, they’re athletic horses, they’re great moving horses, and they’re winning these races on efficiency as much as speed.”

Any breeders wary of the fact Stay Inside has double male Danehill (Danzig) in influential places at 4m x 4m will have had their fears laid to rest.

Two of the stallion’s four stakes winners now have triple Danehill. The Machine Gun carries him at 5m, 5m x 5m – through a third dam by Danehill Dancer – while Kindergarten Stakes (Gr 3, 1100m) winning filly Blue Door has the great stallion even stronger at 5m, 5m x 3f, as he’s her second damsire.

As Newgate also cheers impressive first seasons for Wild Ruler (nine winners, two stakes winners) and Tiger Of Malay (five winners), Slade said Stay Inside had a full book of 150 mares locked in, with the possibility of some extras bumping that figure up. Stay Inside has covered books of 189, 152 and 178 mares, before last spring’s 181.

“Him going up in fee last year barely ever happens,” Slade said. “But the feedback the market was getting even before they ran was so strong that we were in a position to do that, and he got a terrific book.

“The beautiful thing about him is he’s never had an off season. He’s had strong support all the way through, so there’s no dips and dives coming up for him. He’s had good support all the way through and that will continue this year.”