Mighty mares set to clash

Image: Sheza Alibi and Autumn Glow, (Credit ANZ)

Anytime is a good time for such things, but at a moment when racing could really use some horses to dominate the headlines, Saturday’s Winx Stakes (Gr 1, 1400m) at Randwick looks set to provide a doozy.

As concerned parties continue waiting to see if former Minister Brad Hazzard’s review of NSW’s Thoroughbred Racing Act will be made public, by Tuesday it still hadn’t and there was no sign of smoke in the chimney, mouths began watering over a likely clash of wonder mares Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) and Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior).

Chris Waller’s five-year-old, who was unbeaten in 11 outings before her last-start third in her first attempt at the distance in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Gr 1, 2000m), versus Moody-Coleman’s astounding four-year-old, who started out with a couple of losses but has since streaked to five straight wins, the latest in Randwick’s Doncaster Mile (Gr 1, 1600m) with breathtaking ease.

It looks on.

Sydney mare Autumn Glow is a certain starter. Sheza Alibi is also nominated for Caulfield’s Memsie Stakes (Gr 1, 1400m) closer to her Pakenham base on Saturday week, but her owner Fred Noffke on Tuesday told ANZ Bloodstock News he was “75 per cent” certain she’d contest the Winx.

A flood of money for Sheza Alibi after her trackwork on Tuesday morning suggested heavily that the first-up match race would take place. With Noffke at least confirming his corner would definitely accept before Wednesday’s 9am deadline, Sheza Alibi firmed from $3.80 to $2.50, as Autumn Glow held firm at $1.60.

Mind you, the Winx shapes as something more than a two-horse race. The 17 nominations included 14 Group 1 winners, from Ceolwulf (Tavistock) to Aeliana (Castelvecchio), Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun) to Beiwacht (Bivouac), Green Spaces (Street Boss) to Barnavara (Calyx), and several more.

That number might dwindle at acceptances, especially with some of Waller’s nominated 11 horses likely to come out, but as a first Group 1 of the Australian season it will be a must-watch way to kick off, certainly answering doubts about the Winx Stakes’ right to elite status.

It’s also definitely a fitting vehicle for Autumn Glow to resume, as she looks to atone for that Queen Elizabeth blip at the start of what shapes as her final 12 months of racing, leading to a likely Royal Ascot mission in England and a possible first cover from Dubawi (Dubai Millennium) whilst there.

“It’s going to be some sort of race,” Autumn Glow’s chief owner John Messara told ANZ Bloodstock News. “Certainly the best edition of the Winx Stakes ever, if not one of the best races ever.”

Both mares seem bursting to race.

“James [McDonald] got off after her exhibition gallop between races on Saturday and said she felt as good as she’s ever felt, and probably even a little better than she felt in the lead up to previous campaigns,” Messara said.

“He seems to be very happy. Our trainer says he’s got her ready for Saturday. Everyone’s very positive.”

Sheza Alibi won her second of two Pakenham synthetic jump outs last week and completed a sparkling piece of trackwork on Tuesday morning with Luke Nolen in the saddle. While Jamie Melham rode her with her 49 kilograms in her 4.29-length Doncaster romp, Nolen, who’s ridden the mare to three wins at heavier weights, would regain the ride in the Winx.

“She’s pretty forward, pretty well,” co-trainer Peter Moody said in an update to Noffke, posted on social media. “The horse is in great order, a happy, healthy girl. Hardly a bead of sweat on her. Pleasing work, and also a very pleasing recovery.”

That was resoundingly seconded by Noffke, the Queensland grazier whose $10,000 purchase has so far earned him $3.7 million.

“She looked magnificent today,” Noffke told ANZ. “She pulled up like she was walking out to the track, not coming back.

“Everything just appears to be even better than normal and it’s always been pretty great.”

However,  the only question fans and many all-in pre-acceptances punters will be dying to have confirmed, will she head north to the Winx?

“I’ve been 50/50 until this morning. Now I reckon I’m 75 per cent,” Noffke said on Tuesday, after speaking with Moody. “I’d like to say it’s 80 per cent, because that’s a sure thing in my world.

“None of us really know whether we’re going to be running or not. But Peter said she’ll tell us, and everything she’s telling us says she wants to go racing.

“We would’ve preferred to stay in Melbourne and go to the Memsie. But Sheza Alibi is saying ‘I’m ready, I’m ready’.

“And if you don’t race her, you run the risk of something shitty happening. If she runs into something, trips arse over head or something happens, all of a sudden you miss the Memsie.

“And Peter’s mindful that we need to race because that’s what she wants to do. Plus, it’s not like we’re trying to protect a perfect record.”

He added: “Holding her up for a week for the Memsie won’t make her any faster. To me, you aim at the first race that suits.

“Going on Peter’s mannerisms, what I can see of the horse and what I understand – yeah let’s race.

“If the bloods look good tonight, we’ll be there.”

Autumn Glow’s camp is also no longer mindful of protecting an unbeaten record, and Messara said he looked forward to the prospect of a battle with Sheza Alibi.

The lone Australian stakes winner for the relatively obscure former Coolmore shuttler Saxon Warrior (Deep Impact), Sheza Alibi finished last season with a rating of 115 compared to Autumn Glow’s 121, which was bettered in Australia only by the 122 of the stallion who won that Queen Elizabeth, Sir Delius (Frankel).

“I welcome it if Sheza Alibi comes up. That creates interest in racing,” Messara said.

“They’re both very good mares. They were going to meet at some stage I suppose, so it can be now if it has to be. The good horses can’t duck other good horses. They’ve got to stand up and compete.”

As for the million-dollar question, Messara said it was “very difficult to tell” who would win. He did, however, make the point that Sheza Alibi would be rising to weight-for-age for the first time.

“They’ve never got close to each other in racing,” the Arrowfield boss said. “But I was very impressed with her Doncaster win. I can still see it in my mind. She made up an enormous amount of ground, but she had very little weight, so it’s difficult to get a line on it.

“But she’s outstanding, certainly a worthy opponent, and who knows which way it will go.

“We are proven at weight-for-age. Most of our racing has been at weight-for-age, so I’m comfortable from that point of view. It’s difficult to say how Sheza Alibi will cope with weight-for-age competition, but you’d think she could handle it. She’s very smart, really smart.

“So we’ll wait and see. The confrontation, if they do meet, will tell us on that day which was the best, but they’re both very, very good.”

Noffke revealed a couple of jitters, but was happy enough to be tackling Autumn Glow.

“I’d probably prefer it to be over 1600 metres and prefer to be second-up rather than first-up,” he said.

“And we would prefer not to race against Autumn Glow, but if it needs to be it needs to be. But Peter said a long time ago, we fear no horse in Australia.

“Even if Autumn Glow wasn’t in there there’d be a good chance we’d still be going there. We’re not going there to race Autumn Glow, she’s just a horse who’s going to be in the race. It’s the race we want.”

Sheza Alibi is heading to the obvious choice of targets – the $10 million Golden Eagle (Gr 1, 1500m) for four-year-olds at Randwick on October 31.

“The Golden Eagle is the main goal,” Noffke said. “It has to be. I use money to pay my bills, you know?

“And if you’ve got the best four-year-old filly in Australia, and maybe the best four-year-old horse in Australia, you’d be an idiot not to be there.”

Messara said, pending discussions with Waller and co-owners Hermitage, last year’s Golden Eagle winner Autumn Glow could be kept “in her comfort zone” of 1400-1600-metre weight-for-age races this spring, or revert to the shorter distance of the $20 million The Everest (Gr 1, 1200m), for which Waller owns a slot.

He also said another attempt at 2000 metres was not out of the question despite the mare’s Queen Elizabeth dethroning, arguing that race was run “at a fierce pace”.

“I think she could win at 2000 metres, if it was run in a regular time, but I don’t she’s an out-and-out 2000 metre filly,” Messara said. “I think she’s a sprinter-miler, as her pedigree indicates.”

Now blessed with the finest athlete of his long history of racehorse ownership, Messara said he’d like Autumn Glow to compete at Royal Ascot next year, expressing a preference for the shorter Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) over the other possibility of the Queen Anne Stakes (Gr 1, 1600m).

That would also likely cap off her career, aged five, before retirement.

“I don’t want to give her too much racing,” Messara said. “Most of those mares who’ve been champions and raced on and on because they’ve been so good and kept winning, they just haven’t been producers.

“She’s absolutely dominated on the track, and I’d like to see her dominate in the breeding barn and leave us some great fillies and colts.

“There may even be a stallion in Europe that can’t be accessed here, we might go to at the time.”

Frankel (Galileo) could be one such candidate, but since him covering Autumn Glow would effect a 3f x 4m duplication of Danehill (Danzig), Messara mused the Danehill-free Dubawi would be a better choice.

“The ideal one would be Dubawi, but he’s getting to a fairly old age at 24,” he said. “He would be the ideal mating on paper. He’s not big, Autumn Glow’s big. It would be a good balance of physicals.

“The Autumn Sun likes Dubawi mares,” he added, noting his own $1.3 million earner Know Thyself was one such product. “So if we switched it and put Dubawi over an Autumn Sun mare, that would probably work as well.

“But there’s good sons of Dubawi now coming to Australia, and there are others in Europe. I’m not closing off any options.”

Darley pair Too Darn Hot and Ghaiyyath are proven sons of Dubawi at stud in Australia, while his unproven sons include Arrowfield shuttler Lead Artist, Coolmore’s Delacroix and Rosemont’s Henry Longfellow.